Contrarian Youth: Young, Volatile and Full of Surprises

Contrarian Youth

The quote falsely attributed to Winston Churchill starts 'if you are not a liberal when you are young, you have no heart' is very much out of date in today's febrile political environment.

You would think today's younger voters – what we're calling the Contrarian Youth – would hang their hat on Labour improving their life chances – but that's far from the case.

The good news is that by and large this group – with an average age of 33 – have drifted away from Reform. The bad news is they've now set up camp with the Greens.

There are so many surprising contradictions about the views and attitudes of the Contrarian Youth that simply run contrary to their own interests. For example, they are less likely to support workers' rights policies such as making the minimum wage a real living wage and are not in favour of capping rent increases.

Engaging these younger workers on the importance of employment rights and the power of collective bargaining positions is an important long-term goal that would help to strengthen the future of the workers' rights movement.

More immediately, the question of housing ownership remains alive for the Contrarian Youth – and as finances are such an important issue to this group it may be a key attack point for them. It is easy to argue that not only do Reform UK lack a well thought out housing plan, but their economic plans are likely to drive up mortgage costs.

The other significant element is this group's support for strong leaders and politicians. The survey shows Contrarian Youth have a higher-than-average support scores for key right-wing figures, including Tommy Robinson and Andrew Tate. That could appear an insurmountable problem – except for the fact that Contrarian Youth also had above average approval scores for Labour party politicians such as Angela Rayner and Jeremy Corbyn as well. Indeed, at 27% they have a higher approval rating for Keir Starmer than any other group.

It suggests this group may be susceptible to strong messengers and charismatic influencers, with the data suggesting that as a group they are more trusting of religious leaders and celebrities.

Beyond these factors, this group is a mass of contradictions. More than half of this segment agree that Reform is a far-right populist party, with 19% strongly agreeing. Whilst it seems some are open to deeper radicalisation, with 45% saying they would be likely to support an anti-immigration and anti-Islam street movement led by Tommy Robinson, and 53% agreeing that violence can be necessary to defend something you strongly believe in.

The Contrarian Youth grouping also differs from both the UK population and the average for Reform UK voters considerably on women's rights, with a majority saying feminism has gone too far and it makes it harder for men to succeed.

Nearly half think abortion is morally wrong and should be illegal in most or all circumstances. The survey suggests this view may reflect the higher religiosity of this group of voters. More than 55% think that British men are less masculine than they used to be.

More alarmingly, there is also higher than average support for conspiracy theories. More than half claim to believe that Jewish people have unhealthy control over the world's banking system, and 52% that the official account of the Nazi Holocaust is a lie and numbers have been exaggerated.

They do, however, support anti-racism efforts much more than other segments – for example 57% agree that footballers should be supported in taking the knee in opposition to racism.

They also believe more than other Reform voters that migrants are needed in public services and they are optimistic about politics even though they are less likely to be engaged electorally.

The report points out that it will be interesting to see how government efforts on devolution and building community ownership can be translated to this audience to reduce feelings of political impotence and further a sense of togetherness.