Hardline Conservatives: Why Farage's Grip Is Tight - but Not Unbreakable

Hardline Conservatives

The Lady wasn't for turning – despite high unemployment and the recession, but that was Margaret Thatcher to a T.

Many of those who slavishly adored her – the 'Hardline Tories' – have turned, or rather shifted even further to the right, and are now firmly in the bosom of the dysfunctional Farage family.

The stark reality is that the Hardline Conservatives are very unlikely to cross the divide to left wing politics.

The strength of their feeling about migration – they are significantly more likely to consider immigration and asylum as a top three issue facing themselves and their family than any other group – means prising them away from the grip of Nigel Farage will be difficult.

However, that does not mean it is impossible to show them where their interests diverge from Reform – and there are clear dividing lines between this group and other supporters of the party.

One is on employment rights. The clearest observation from the data on improving workers' rights was the stark contrast between extremely low support from the Hardline Tories and the broader support from others – particularly the Working Right. Just 7% support doubling the minimum wage – 22% less than any other group. Only 14% believe in increased taxes for the wealthiest and less than one in five want to cap rents.

The group are similarly underwhelmed by plans to introduce statutory sick pay from first day of sickness and protection from unfair dismissal from day one of job. They are, however, at odds with many Reform supporters who will be unhappy Nigel Farage and fellow MPs voted against the Employment Rights Bill.

Many of the issues that progressive parties care about have no impact with the 'hardliners', who have little time for how climate change would affect their families, while less than half believe the government should put more money into the NHS (56% say NHS costs are going up too much, too quickly and we should move to a US-style insurance system). As far as migration goes, they want the toughest policies possible.

One issue Hardline Conservatives deeply care about is defence and the UK's standing in the world.

The survey showed they have a strong dislike of Vladimir Putin and this could be exploited. Exploring the potential of narratives around Reform being inexperienced and even untrustworthy on foreign policy could be an interesting way to target this segment – particularly as Reform has consistently been accused of being soft on Russia. The party leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, even pleaded guilty to accepting bribes in return for making positive statements about Russia as a member of the European Parliament.

It feeds into another potential area of weakness for Reform – their political competence. Reform's lack of concrete policy and track record on managing budgets makes it challenging to lay out what is at risk. Evidence of Reform mismanaging finances at local level, particularly tax rises where the opposite was promised as in Kent, could become national arguments that would appeal to all the segments, but particularly Hardline Conservatives.

Tax rises and more traditionally left-leaning economic policy would also alienate the Hardline Conservatives.

Reaching out to this group is also difficult because of their commitment to the right-wing media. Around 45% get their news from GB News while 35% read the Daily Mail.