Small Boats Myth: How Reform Gaslight Britain on Immigration

Nigel Farage's hardline rhetoric on migrants has "misled" the public into thinking most immigrants arrive in Britain on small boats.

A new survey has revealed that nearly half of those polled believe migrants crossing the Channel "account for the largest share of people coming to live in the UK" when it is roughly 5%. Around 50% of people coming to the UK are on work and study visas.

The "big misconception" on small boats has skewed the public mood on immigration, according to the poll by Survation, which showed 53% of people think immigration over the last year has been higher — when in fact net migration has fallen to 204,000, which is over three quarters lower than the peak of nearly one million when the Tories were in power.

Green entrepreneur and campaigner Dale Vince said: "Our poll shows that the constant drum beat against immigration by right-wing media and politicians has gaslit the British public, who think immigration is still rising and that small boat crossings via the Channel are the main route. And who can blame them — right-wing politicians and media are a fact-free zone on immigration. This is how they want it."

"But this toxic narrative could push us to further economic self-harm — if as a result we reach 'net zero migration' as Farage argues for. This could create a £37 billion economic black hole and higher taxes for us all — something half the people in our survey did not want. Gaslighting is a favourite tool of manipulators — I call on Farage and Badenoch and all right-wing media to stop the manipulation and start telling the truth on immigration."

"While the gaslighting on immigration is clearly having an effect, the British public are not buying the Reform in No10 story — despite their high poll showings right now, most Brits think Reform are not able to govern and that Farage is incapable of representing us all."

Nearly four-in-ten people polled said they would support 'net zero migration' even if it meant higher taxes to maintain public services. However, 49% would not support net zero migration if it meant paying more tax themselves.

The think tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research has predicted that if net migration falls to zero it would shrink the economy by 3.7% and leave a £37 billion hole in the budget.

Reform's Nigel Farage has declared that "net migration should be zero" but has so far failed to address the economic consequences. The Reform leader has backed a "mass deportation" policy dubbed Operation Restoring Justice, aimed at deporting 600,000 migrants over five years if they win power at the next general election.

Interestingly, only 28% of those aged between 25 and 34 want to see a decrease in immigration, compared to 76% of those aged 65 or older. Our polling has revealed that younger voters understand that immigrants are needed to ensure the smooth running of public services, especially the NHS.

In the past Reform has seen a surge of interest from young men in particular, but recent data shows a sharp reversal. One YouGov poll shows support in this demographic fell from 21% in August 2025 to just 8% shortly afterwards, which can be explained by a shift to the Greens, with the party claiming 37% of the under-30s.

If net zero migration meant higher taxes overall to maintain current public services, to what extent, if at all, would you support or oppose this?

Britain's top polling expert Sir John Curtice has said there is "no doubt" support for Reform is falling. The latest YouGov poll shows support was up two points to 25% — well off the peak of more than 30% last year.

In our own Survation poll there is more encouraging news for Labour, which reveals 48% of the public don't think Reform are ready to govern, with 36% saying they are capable of running the country.

And when questioned, 46% think Farage is incapable of representing people of all ethnicities, backgrounds and religions, versus 36% who think he can.

A polling source said: "Reform is well-placed to trigger tactical behaviour. 32% name Reform as the party they would least like to win locally, making it a credible focal point for 'stop Reform' messaging in seats where Reform is competitive."

Labour, however, cannot rely on tactical voting helping them to victory, as "most won't switch" according to the polling, with 39% saying they would stick to their original party even when their first choice cannot realistically win.

The top two issues that would make voters more likely to back Labour are reducing NHS waiting times and tackling the cost of living. Immigration ranks fourth alongside bringing utilities into public ownership.

A new Labour bill that would stop 'dodgy front companies' from making political donations would be welcomed by the public, with 60% opposing foreign money going to parties. Gifts and hospitality for politicians supplied by foreign states or companies will also be severely restricted. The government also intends to stop donations in cryptocurrency because of fears of foreign interference.

Reform received a record £9 million donation from cryptocurrency investor and aviation entrepreneur Christopher Harborne. Farage said: "I've not promised him a single thing in return for his donation."