Who Do You Think You're Kidding Mr Crypto

The British public demands change – but is far from sure it wants to roll the dice on Reform's new populist order.

Whilst the Gorton and Denton by-election result was the ultimate reality check for Labour as its 13,000-majority vanished, Reform has yet to convince a skeptical public it can run the country – or that its whingeing and revisionist approach is the answer.

So what can Labour do? How can the party redefine itself to a disaffected Britain?

Understand the country's struggles, get to know the challenges of a persisting cost of living crisis, and communicate assurance and action loud enough to be heard by those who feel voiceless.

Connect with Reform's five tribes to win back support for Labour

What we're trying to achieve with this latest edition of Babelfish – which is based on polling, research and analysis conducted by HOPE not hate and commissioned by Ecotricity – is to delve into the often conflicting and even contradictory views and attitudes of the five tribes we've identified as making up Reform's voter base.

Many Labour MPs will see the threat of Reform and know their seats will be in jeopardy come 2029. What our polling of potential Reform voters presents is hope.

Opportunity

As things stand at least 140 seats will have margins of 5% or lower with 31 seats having a margin of 1%, which represents a challenge, but it also presents an opportunity.

Those seats are within Labour's grasp if the party can understand and act on the nuances of different would-be Reform voters and see the potential for alignment behind the vocal disconnect.

Significantly while Reform's rallying cry might be that immigration is to blame for the entirety of Britain's woes, and that it's only a policy of net zero migration that can solve our cost-of-living crisis, free up housing, and reduce crime, in reality, many of those drawn to Farage's dogmatism, especially younger acolytes attracted to his blokey charisma, disagree. Our polling shows this slice of Reform's support, the 'Contrarian Youth', with an average age of 33, understand that immigrants play a vital role in the public sector with just 20% listing immigration asylum as one of the top three issues facing them today.

There is also evidence of a route, albeit a narrow one, into the concerns of 'Hardline Tories', the traditional right of the Conservative Party now Reform disciples. Predictably, progressive issues are unlikely to prove appealing, but as a group they do demonstrate a deep commitment to Britain's defence and our global standing. This position and the strong dislike of Vladimir Putin it inspires can be leveraged with the government's support for the Ukrainian people especially when juxtaposed with Farage's description of the Russian dictator as the world leader he "most admired" as a political operator.

Our poll shows 'Reluctant Reformers', the most politically moderate segment, back the party more out of frustration than an ideological conviction with only one third having voted Reform at the last election. These are proud people, with a social conscience, who care deeply about the NHS. With nearly six out of ten thinking immigration has actually been good for the UK and 35% stating they don't even "actively like Farage" this segment should be best primed for positive Labour messaging around the success of government reform and investment.

We find similarly frustrated sentiments in the group classified as 'Working Right'. With many believing they've been abandoned and exploited in the name of austerity; they care deeply about workers' rights with many belonging to a trade union and supportive of changes in the Employment Rights Bill. It is still, however, Farage that they believe represents their best chance for a positive change. But with 81% agreeing that wealthy people are getting richer while poorer people are falling further behind, they should be receptive to the reminder that multi-millionaire Farage and his MPs voted against those workers' rights reforms.

But it will take a message of real change to win back confidence as TUC general secretary Paul Nowak spells out in his comment piece inside: "If people don't start feeling the change they voted for, their faith in mainstream politics to deliver will be shot – and it will be those on the far-right, who offer easy answers with convenient scapegoats while lining the pockets of their millionaire backers who benefit."

We see much greater opportunities for bridging the ideological gap in the 'Squeezed Stewards' denomination, the most politically disenfranchised of the segments with 87% agreeing politicians don't listen to people like them. They are vehemently anti-immigration and yet highly receptive to messaging around the environment. Nearly 99% agree climate change poses a threat to them and their families, and 82% believe climate change is caused by human activity. A sharp contrast to Reform and Farage's messaging as he's previously dismissed the very concept of the climate crisis as "a scam".

The picture is clear. The British people have lost confidence in Westminster politicians making the right choices for them while Nigel Farage has weaponized fear to capture a threatening portion of those frustrated with the status quo.

But our polling shows even a sizeable portion of potential Reform voters aren't buying this narrative and that if Labour can be relentless in its positive messaging whilst exposing the vulnerabilities of Reform's coalition of Farage-inspired fear, there is a road to success come the next general election.