Reform UK Voters: Who They Really Are and What They Actually Want

With Reform UK leading comfortably in the polls and people waking up to the very real possibility that the party could form the next Government, there has never been more urgency to properly understand who its voting base is and the issues that are driving them.

That's exactly what our research report Fed Up and Rolling the Dice, which examines the motivations of Reform voters, sets out to do. Based on a survey of over 11,000 Reform UK supporters, this is the largest and most extensive study into the party undertaken to date.

We find that Reform UK is made up of a coalition of voters, many with quite different and contradictory views to each other. These disparate voters can be divided into five distinct segments: The Working Right, Hardline Conservatives, Squeezed Stewards, Contrarian Youth and Reluctant Reformers. Each segment shares common characteristics amongst themselves and sometimes quite stark differences with the others.

The fact that Reform UK is made up of a coalition of voters should not come as a surprise. In fact, all major political parties comprise of coalitions. Factions to the left and the right, those that speak to the more comfortable in society and those who focus more on the have-nots.

But, somewhat bizarrely, many people view Reform UK differently, almost exclusively through the prism of immigration. They view the far-right populist party as owning that policy area.

Reform's political rivals believe that the way to defeat Reform UK and win back voters is to offer suitably hardline policies on immigration and asylum. In the Conservative Party, this led to the then Shadow Justice Minister Robert Jenrick - who has now defected to Reform - joining protesters outside hotels and clambering up lampposts to put up St George's flags, while Katie Lam MP has demanded that up to two million people with settled status be deported to ensure Britain remains "culturally coherent".

For the Labour Government, it has meant speeches from the Prime Minister talking about the "incalculable damage" of immigration, and a social media response to Nigel Farage's announcement of deporting up to 600,000 "illegal" immigrants that dismissed the Reform UK leader as a "moaner", while proudly showcasing that Labour was getting on with the job of deporting people.

However, this research suggests that immigration tunnel vision is preventing people from seeing other opportunities to reach and persuade voters who are enticed by Reform UK. Immigration is important to some Reform UK voters but not to others. Understanding the real motivation of what is driving people to Reform UK is the first stage to addressing the party's threat.

Different issues are important to different parts of the Reform UK coalition — there is no one strategy to win these voters back. This report is far more than an interesting piece of research. It is a blueprint for action. If we accept that Reform UK is made up of a coalition of voters, then we also need to understand that different strategies, policies and messengers are needed to engage with each of the segments.

A strategy to engage with the Working Right, who are struggling economically and the most hostile to immigration and multiculturalism, needs to be quite different from that deployed to engage with the more moderate Reluctant Reformers, who care most strongly about the NHS and are worried about the failure of successive governments to deliver. HOPE not hate will use the findings of this vitally important report to guide our own campaigning.

We can now better understand the issues on which to engage with each of the different Reform UK segments, how best to reach them and – just as importantly – who is the best messenger to use. Our data analysis can even suggest how our five segments are spread across constituencies, ensuring we engage with the groups that can realistically change the outcome of an election. This incredible research will guide our own campaigning over the next few years. We hope it will help yours too…

The Five Tribes

Working Right

What might be described as the hard core of Reform UK, the Working Right is a group of largely older voters (42% aged 35-54; 42% 55 or over) who work or have worked in lower paying jobs. More than half have a pre-tax income under £40,000. A quarter live in council housing. More than half voted for Reform UK at the last election and a fifth backed its predecessor the Brexit Party in 2019. Many are pessimistic about the economy. Just 15% have a degree or higher qualification. They live predominantly in the north and east of England – with many in the red wall seats that Labour held before 2019.

Reluctant Reformers

Reluctant Reformers are by some distance the most moderate of the party's supporters – and seem to have been drawn to Reform because of their frustration with the existing political system. Only a third voted Reform in the last election and many have moved to the party from previously supporting Labour or the Tories. They are the most likely to see healthcare and the NHS as a top three priority and think it urgently needs more funding. It is the only segment that has more women than men (56%-44%). It has the widest range of ages. They are evenly spread across the UK.

Hardline Conservatives

This group of politically engaged voters are both socially and economically conservative and among the most anti-migration and anti-Muslim of Reform's voters. Nearly all have defected from the Tory Party. They are predominantly male (65%), nearly three-quarters are aged over 55 with the majority retired, and they are wealthy, with 79% owning their home and 45% feeling either comfortable or well off. They are the most likely to vote and being concentrated in the Midlands, South East, South West and East of England, they can be influential in seats where Reform is competing with the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Contrarian Youth

These Reform supporters are notable for their average age (just 33) and their varied and at times incomprehensible mix of opinions. Men make up nearly two-thirds and they are more likely than the national average to have degree level or above education (41%). It is also the only segment with any real ethnic diversity - ethnic minority members making up 15%. The group is a mix economically – some are very successful but others are struggling – however, more than half feel financially worried or even desperate. One of the reasons may be the difficulty this age group have getting on to the housing ladder.

Squeezed Stewards

Welcome to Mr and Mrs Reform – the average supporter of Farage's party and in many ways an average voter. They split 50-50 men and women, hit the national norm or are very close on many fronts including housing, financial experience and income. This gives them "squeezed" status - many are unlikely to meet the thresholds for support but will have experienced a decline in quality of life over the last five years. The biggest segment, representing just under 30% of Reform's electorate, the Squeezed Stewards could make a big impact on Reform's electoral performance.