Reform's Five Tribes: How Labour Can Win Them Back

Struggling ordinary people with legitimate concerns, or authoritarian racists one step removed from the organised far-right? Neither of these characterisations of Reform's voter base is satisfactory, because neither is true in its entirety: Reform's high support necessarily means a diverse coalition of voters.

HOPE not hate is one step closer to understanding the clusters of opinion, and how we persuade amenable groups away from Farage.

Our survey of over 11,000 people is the largest and most extensive study into Reform's voter base to date, and reveals factions with surprising views. Of course immigration is a key draw for many. However, a lot of would-be Reform voters are at odds with the party on areas including employment rights, climate, public services and community cohesion. These are all areas that this government is delivering on. However, delivery without effective communication allows Reform to compound the mistrust and frustration of its Labour-persuadable voters.

In brief, these are the five segments revealed in our data analysis:

Working Right (26%): Angry, economically insecure and alienated, they combine strong support for workers with a hard-edged anti-immigrant worldview.

Hardline Conservatives (18%): Comfortable, older, individualist and committed to shrinking the state, these voters are ideologically closest to traditional conservatism rather than Reform's populism.

Squeezed Stewards (29%): Middle-of-the-road and anxious about the future, they combine hostility to immigration with a genuine concern for nature, community and fairness.

Contrarian Youth (9%): Financially insecure and politically volatile, the diverse Contrarian Youth mix cynicism and conspiracy with flashes of optimism and a craving for belonging.

Reluctant Reformers (19%): Frustrated with political failure but driven by fairness, competence and a desire for stability rather than radical change. They back Reform out of frustration, not conviction, and are the most persuadable segment.

The segmentation adds nuance which allows us to target specific voters on the issues that matter to them. HOPE not hate can even use data to suggest how the segments are spread across constituencies, ensuring we engage with the groups that can realistically change the outcome of an election.

This could be essential for turning over small margins at the ward/constituency level and drastically affecting election results.

In four separate September 2025 constituency MRPs, YouGov, Focaldata, More in Common and Find Out Now predicted at least 140 seats with margins of 5% or lower, and an average of 31 seats with margins of 1% or lower.

Small swings could guarantee or deny Reform UK the majority it needs to form a government.

We don't need to win over every Reform voter — targeting just a handful in key seats can make all the difference. The Reluctant Reformers emerge as the obvious choice for Labour to target as they are only loosely affiliated with Reform and most aligned with Labour's policy platform.

They support measures in the Employment Rights Act and Renters' Rights Act and are in favour of businesses having to take accountability for their impact on the climate. Just a third (32%) voted for Reform UK in the 2024 General Election, the lowest proportion of any segment, whilst a quarter (24%) voted for Labour.

Many Reluctant Reformers are floaters who will make their decision close to polling day.

Multiculturalism and community cohesion are the buzzwords for drawing Reluctant Reformers voters away from Reform. 86% think that Britain should be either multicultural or multi-ethnic and 90% like mixing with diverse people in their local area. At the community level, they have concerns about cohesion and a desire for greater power, which is where they can either fall under Reform's spell or be won over by Labour's strong record in these areas. 73% agree that the Government should do more to improve community cohesion in some of the most divided communities.

This is a clear area for targeted communication on the new strategy and reassurance based around strong principles of fairness and safety for all, not "out-Reforming Reform" with hostility.

Digging into the nuances of Reform voters is important both as an intellectual and a strategic exercise. It avoids pigeonholing a diverse cohort of fed-up voters, and ensures that Labour party strategy is oriented first and foremost towards the low hanging fruit.

There are gains to be made if the party is willing to realign itself to a new understanding of which Reform voters it can reach.